Simulation of record
FOMC · Oct 27–28, 2026
The record is fixed at Oct 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, when the Fed's blackout begins.
Simulation outcomes
Latest draw so far, as of 2026-10-02.
Show as table
| Outcome | Rate range | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Hold | 3.75% - 4.00% | 30 of 30 runs |
2 draws for this meeting before the cutoff: 1 published, 1 failed or discarded. Every one is in the log.
Get the scorecard after the Oct 28 decision
Simulated committee and market pricing
- Simulation
- Hold 30 · of 30 runs
- Treasury bills
- +13.4 bp expected at Oct 28 (nearest step: hike)
Latest reading so far, Oct 9, 2026. The record takes the one standing at its cutoff.
The Treasury-bill direction at the record cutoff matched the decision in 23 of 27 meetings since March 2023 (backtest: 93% at 5 business days before the decision, 70% at 20).
References: CME FedWatch · Kalshi
Runs are counts from 30 simulations. Computed by SAPIENSQ from U.S. Treasury bill rates (Treasury, FiscalData) and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's EFFR. The EFFR is subject to the Terms of Use posted at newyorkfed.org. The New York Fed is not responsible for publication of the EFFR by SAPIENSQ, does not sanction or endorse any particular republication, and has no liability for your use.
Full record
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Get the scorecard after the Oct 28 decision
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